A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
