Foreign Office Cautioned Against Armed Intervention to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents show that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to remove the former Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country fell into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by force";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military involvement would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political catastrophe – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we assess that no nation in Africa would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Playing the Longer Game Recommended

The Prime Minister's advisor, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, noting: "We must devise a way of exposing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was ultimately removed in a 2017 coup, at the age of 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise Thabo Mbeki into joining a armed alliance to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the ex-British leader.