🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours prior to the New York race for mayor, political analyst Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – not just who would win citywide, but block by block. Lange, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted more than ten years in left-leaning activism and has become something of a well-known figure recently for his thorough analyses into city data and polling.

He published his extremely precise forecast map – accurately predicting that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his newsletter, the Narrative War. Lange has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from one neighborhood to another area to a third locale, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would triumph by huge margins, and the conservative-leaning zone on affluent parts of Manhattan. In those areas, “the Free Press and Wall Street Journal outrank the mainstream paper” in readership and most voters favored Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

I had to do that since they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the tally every few minutes! I was actually somewhat anxious initially: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by a dozen percentage points, but came two big batches of votes that came in later and the advantage dropped from 12% to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday went kind of poorly for Mamdani, in which the opponent was going to end up basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he won. He campaigned and greatly broadened his base from the first round.

Expanding Support

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He built the coalition that the left always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, it’s renters and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, working- and middle-class voters, compared to the primary. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without expanding his appeal.

He built the alliance that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, renters and people struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is this significant?

It’s definitely a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, south Asians and Muslims. Electors in ethnic enclaves that supported Trump previously went for the progressive this year. However it’s not that he was gaining white working-class voters and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

A major development of the election was the record turnout. Who did that help?

Both sides. Turnout was significantly higher than I had expected. I thought we might exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3 million – that is a huge number of participants. There was a decent opposition group, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that sufficed to secure victory.

You predicted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he on course for that?

Right now you would say he’s favored to surpass half. He’s at 50.4% but there’s still probably 200K ballots left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think it’s likely, and I wish he achieves it because then no one can say Sliwa was a disruptor.

Republican Collapse

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His vote completely collapsed.

He didn’t win any district in any borough. Including one neighborhood in Staten Island, similar to an 88% Trump area. That truly was unexpected. Cuomo held very white areas, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a high participation. I think there was significant strategic balloting by GOP voters. This happened before the former president tweeted his support for the candidate, but that definitely helped. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your often-discussed left-wing base – did backing for Mamdani dominant in those areas of the boroughs?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like neighborhoods that have more older white ethnic folks. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. However overall, largely the leftist base is a key factor why Zohran won – he scored between 77% and 83% in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Any indication that he succeeded?

Exist areas with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. But in the affluent districts like the Manhattan area, his Middle East stance definitely mattered there. Likewise in the moderate communities like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they favored the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe in southern Brooklyn, they were strongly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the another locale by big margins.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Yes, it’s no coincidence that key political leaders from progressives hail from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will come from these neighborhoods to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that each urban center in the US can have similar progressive hubs. Cities are the epicenters of progressive influence in the nation – because they’re young, tenancy is common and they are places where people are crushed by the inequalities exist.