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Ouch. On one hand, the nation's long-running bid to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the environmental gathering could help speed up the country's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but some will wonder if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to look at it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually attend for – the talks on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been finalized at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been determined on causing havoc in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the competition those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that offered the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to organize an unprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the deadlock wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is imperfect and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the fight against climate change. This joint approach is a innovative solution that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a force for good in the talks. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "chief negotiator", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at climate conferences. How, if at all, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on NGO participation by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.