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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward formula. It frequently serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a direct path: the coach who engineered the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. However, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest surprise.

But the current field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a chaotic and thrilling season, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still