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Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – they set a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The choice to militarily strike another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the desire for glory as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to turn attention back home – but escalating insurance prices, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may regret it if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.