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For a brief period, the former US president appeared to take a strong approach concerning Ukraine. After delivering statements of "severe consequences" in August if Putin persisted obstructing peace negotiations, Trump ultimately imposed considerable penalties on the Russian two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This move seriously impacted Putin's ability to support his war effort in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace proposal for the conflict, that was developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukraine's or European participation, he has seemingly gone back to his Russia-friendly approach.

Benefiting Aggression

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing the country's political freedom in peril. Despite ringing proclamations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", significant aspects of the initiative actually undermine that very autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, Trump persists to consider the situation in Ukraine as a basic border issue, implying giving Russia a part of Ukrainian land will appease the ruler. But, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a destroyed region of industrial-devastated land in Ukraine's east. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's obvious goal to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an attractive standard for the Russian people of the democratic governance that Putin's increasing dictatorship withholds them.

Territorial Giveaways

Although keeping in status the already split oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's plan would force Ukraine to abandon the whole Donetsk region. In addition to rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to occupy in more than a decade of warfare, this surrender would leave Ukraine's defenses dangerously undermined.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key impediment to invading forces. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, leaving Russian forces a clear way to the capital in case he subsequently choose to restart the conflict.

Defense Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would enable future hostilities simpler for the Russian military, Trump would require Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Significantly, Trump's initiative sets no equivalent limits on the invading army.

Seemingly as a gesture to Putin's campaign to portray the nation's chosen by the people government as radicals, the plan asserts: "All Nazi ideology and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to emphasize this point, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in 100 days" of a peace deal. However, Trump imposes no requirement that the Russian leader risk his dictatorship by conducting votes in Russia.

Protection Assurances

Certainly, the initiative makes Russia promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in regulation its position of non-aggression towards European nations and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that Putin has breached similar accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for surrendering its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a restoration of seized territory in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should anyone believe Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international defense commitments. Although the proposal warns of a "decisive unified armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from fuzzy to concerning. The proposal would not just block the nation accession to NATO but also prevent alliance nations from positioning troops on the nation's land, effectively precluding the security presence, likely commanded by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his weakened military, re-equipping, and reinvading.

Global Reaction

A separate side agreement reportedly would provide Ukraine with a similar to NATO protection assurance, in which any later "major, planned, and sustained armed attack" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an assault jeopardizing the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This implies a armed reaction. However different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's best protection against future invasion – the effectiveness of the parallel accord would rely on the willingness of Western powers, such as Trump, to react militarily to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not